卢布崩盘掀风暴 恐动摇普京统治地位

Posted on December 16, 2014
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卢布崩盘掀风暴 恐动摇普京统治地位
original quoted source:http://www.epochtimes.com/gb/14/12/16/n4319991.htm
Original posted on Dec 16 2014.

【大纪元12月16日报导】（中央社莫斯科16日综合外电报导）俄罗斯中央银行今天功败垂成，未能阻止卢布汇率失控崩跌，俄罗斯总统蒲亭（Vladimir Putin，又称普京））现正面临一场全面性的货币危机，影响所及，恐削弱他对权力的掌控。
俄罗斯央行今天凌晨紧急升息至17%，央行奋力一搏仍难以阻止卢布再度破底。受累油价直落，加上俄罗斯经济濒临衰退，以及西方国家祭出制裁措施以修理俄罗斯干涉乌克兰内政，卢布目前面临“完美风暴”。

对经济而言，随着借贷利率走高恐损及成长，俄罗斯明年恐将陷入深度衰退；对企业来说，将充斥更多不确定性，以及借贷无门；对俄罗斯央行来说，则是公信力荡然无存。
对蒲亭来说，维系他老大哥地位主要靠二大支柱，也就是金融稳定与经济繁荣，如今二者不保的风险增加，加以正值俄罗斯与西方国家为了乌克兰危机而交恶之际，蒲亭恐将面临政策难题。

俄罗斯卢布兑美元今天首次贬破80大关，在俄罗斯央行闪电升息、升幅写下16年之最后，仍难以重振投资人对卢布的信心，有关俄罗斯将宣布资本管制的传闻如今甚嚣尘上。

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俄罗斯央行闪电将基准利率，由原本的10.5%狂升至17%，卢布曾强弹11%，即便如此，卢布的反弹仅是昙花一现。
俄罗斯10年债殖利率飙涨317个基本点，冲上纪录新高16.4%。
基金经理人估计，俄罗斯央行总裁纳比乌林娜（Elvira Nabiullina）已经用尽所有招数，仍无法拉抬饱受油价直落与国际制裁所苦的卢布汇率，因此有可能祭出资本管制。
无视央行疯狂升息11.5个百分点，以及砸下超过800亿美元进行干预，卢布汇率今年来累计狂泻58%。
OTCex集团新兴市场策略师海德（Jean-David Haddad）表示：“我已经哑口无言。俄罗斯央行太无能了。俄罗斯今天可能必须宣布资本管制，这是最后的手段。”（译者：中央社赵蔚兰）

Martin Chu’s comment: This world has become more entangled and complex now.
It seems a lot of critical events are going to happen in the near future. A lot of people, group, parties and countries are calculating to take some actions. I hope those have good intention in mind should be very careful before triggering the main event. Something just cannot afford to re-do it again once it started! Just like open heart operation, open operation started, you need to make it right! otherwise, your patient will die!

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